Source:
Most players know they should not attempt a grand slam unless the odds are substantially in their favor. The percentage chance to make it a borderline proposition varies between 55 percent and 69 percent, depending on such factors as vulnerability, denomination and type of scoring.
But this assumes an uncontested auction. If you are considering bidding seven when the opponents have refused to allow you to play six, the calculations are quite different. You must take into account the vulnerability, the method of scoring, the state of your score, the freakishness of the deal and, obviously, your prospects of making 13 tricks.
On the diagramed deal, played in a duplicate game at the Alpha Club, 22 East 38th Street, South found himself the proud possessor of a nine-card suit, something one can expect once in about 10,000 deals. He began gently with one spade, and his opponents took advantage of favorable vulnerability to crowd the bidding with the heart suit.
South Disdains Double.
At his second turn, South found that he was too late for Blackwood, and bid a confident six spades. He then had to make a decision when his opponents rightly saved in seven hearts.
This contract could have been doubled and beaten by four tricks for a penalty of 700 points, but that prospect did not attract the South player, Maxwell Schank of New York. He felt that the save would not be found at other tables, so he would not collect many match points by doubling. If North held both missing aces, the grand slam would almost certainly succeed. If he had one ace and East held the other, there was a fair chance that West would not find the killing lead.
Added to which there was a psychological angle: Schank could not bring himself to defend when holding a solid nine-card suit. So he bid seven spades, and as he hoped, West did not find the right lead. He put the heart king on the table and South could count 12 tricks. The diamond jack offered a hope of a 13th.
After winning the heart ace, South ran eight rounds of trumps, reaching this position:
|
 9
 A K J
 |
|
|
Q
4
Q 3 |
|
Q 10 7
A |
|
3
10
5
K |
|
When the last trump was led and a heart was thrown from dummy, East was helpless and the grand slam was made. The defense would have had a slight chance, however, if West had discarded differently. He should have discarded all his clubs, hoping that South would misread the position and finesse in diamonds. But an alert South would realize that West could hardly have bid four hearts holding eight cards in the minor suits.
|
J 2
9 7
A K J 9 6 3
J 9 2 |
|
|
K Q J 8 3 2
4 2
Q 6 5 4 3 |
|
10 8
6 5 4
Q 10 8 7
A 10 8 7 |
|
A K Q 9 7 6 5 4 3
A 10
5
K |
|
| West |
North |
East |
South |
|
|
|
1 |
| 4 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
| 7 |
Pass |
Pass |
7 |
| Pass |
Pass |
Pass |
|
West led the heart king.
