Source: IBPA Column Service Jan 2022 **Source: wikipedia: “is an Australian bridge player and writer. His joint project with Justin Corfield “the Art of Declarer Play” won the International Bridge Press Book of the Year award in 2014. IMPs Dealer South. Both Vul
 10 9 8 5 2 10 8 A K J 9 8 7 A K Q 3 K 2 10 7 5 A 10 5 2
 West North East South 1NT 2 Pass 3 Pass 4 Pass Pass Pass
In a team game, neither player in the West chair wanted to make an aggressive lead because each of them felt such a lead could give the contract away. As a result, they both led a trump. The first declarer played the ten of spades from dummy and took East’s jack with his queen and drew the remaining trumps with the ace. He crossed to dummy with a diamond to the king and ran the seven of clubs to West’s queen. West exited with a low diamond to dummy’s ace. Declarer continued by playing a club from dummy. East’s diamond discard meant that he had a second club loser and that the contract would depend on the king of hearts making a trick. Alas, West had both the ace and queen of hearts and this declarer was down one. At the other table, declarer also drew a second round of trumps with the ace at trick two. Then he cashed dummy’s ace and king of diamonds, returned to hand with a trump to the king, ruffed the ten of diamonds in dummy and, finally, ran the 7 to West’s queen. As cashing the ace of hearts seemed pointless, West exited with a low club which was won in dummy with the eight, East discarding a low diamond. Declarer then played the ace and another club to West’s king. That defender found himself endplayed for a second time on the deal. With only hearts remaining, West cashed the ace of hearts and continued with a low heart to declarer’s king, the game-going trick.

Probabilities:

Source: Probabilities in bridge by Ricardo ArgerichWith five cards missing, the chances of finding the suit split 4-1 with two honors is: 16,95%, in either hand. 8,47% in a specific hand.” The complete deal:
 10 9 8 5 2 10 8 A K J 9 8 7 6 4 A Q 9 6 J 8 6 K Q 4 3 J 7 J 7 5 4 3 Q 9 4 3 2 6 A K Q 3 K 2 10 7 5 A 10 5 2

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