Source: CAC 1975 Bulletin April 1975
My advice is to study the early discards and consider this point: From what holding would the defender most readily have made those discards? The answer often will resolve a critical guess.
For example, a defender who holds A-5-3-2 or K-5-3-2 will discard from that suit more readily than if he had held Q-5-3-2 or J-5-3-2.
That will give you a clue in situations of this kind:
(1)
|
J 7 6 |
|
| Q 9 4 |
|
A 5 3 2 |
|
K 10 8 |
|
(2)
| |
J 8 6 2 |
|
| A 5 3 |
|
Q 9 4 |
| |
K 10 7 |
|
This is a side suit in a trump contract and declarer needs to establish one fast trick. In (1) East has made two early discards. Conclusion: he is more likely to hold A-x-x-x than Q-x-x-x. In (2) West makes an early discard. Conclusion: he is more likely to have discarded from A-x-x than from Q-x-x.
(3)
|
A 8
|
|
| J 9 4 |
|
K 7 5 3 2 |
|
Q 10 6 |
|
(4)
| |
K 10 8
|
|
| A 5 3 2
|
|
J 7 6 |
| |
Q 9 4
|
|
In (3) East makes two early discards. When you play ace and 8 he follows with 5 and 7. Play him for K-x-x-x-x rather than J-x-x-x-x. In (4) West discards twice. He is more likely to have come down to A-x than to J-x; but if a low card to the king is headed by the ace, be inclined to play East for A-J-x. Such inferences are especially strong when dummy has what may seem to a defender to be an esta-blishable suit, as here:
Dlr: South Vul: None
Dealer North. None Vul
|
 10 5 2
 K J 6 3
 A 7 3
 8 6 4 |
|
| 9 3
Q 10 8
10 9 5 4
K J 7 3 |
|
J 7
A 9 5 2
J 8 6
A 10 9 5 |
|
A K Q 8 6 4
7 4
K Q 2
Q 2 |
| West |
North |
East |
South |
|
1 |
Pass |
1NT |
| Pass |
3 |
Pass |
4 |
| Pass |
Pass |
Pass |
|
West leads
3 and South ruffs the third round. There is something to be said for leading a heart at once, putting West under some pressure if he holds the ace, but instead the declarer plays four rounds of trumps, discarding a diamond from dummy. (It is good play to keep the heart holding intact.)
West throws a club and a diamond, East a club and a heart. After cashing three diamonds, South leads a heart and West plays the 8. South should finesse the jack. Why? Because of East’s heart discard. With A-9-x-x East, expecting the contract to depend on the heart guess, would not think it necessary to keep all four. But with Q-9-x-x he would not let a heart go, in case declarer held A-x. As so often is the case, the discard tells the story.
