Source: IBPA Column Service Jun 2018
Dealer North. Both Vul
Q J 2
A 3
A 8 4
K J 9 6 2
10 9 7 5
Q 10 6 5
9 2
7 4 3
8 6 4
4
K Q J 10 7 6 3
8 5
A K 3
K J 9 8 7 2
5
A Q 10
West
North
East
South
1NT
3
3
Pass
3NT
Pass
6
Pass
Pass
Pass
Both South players in a team game reached a fair six hearts. Both received the lead of the nine of diamonds, suggesting that the diamonds were at least 7-2 since, with three diamonds, West would have led his lowest card. The first declarer was a good, if somewhat unimaginative, player.
Tim Bourke
After winning the first trick with the ace of diamonds, he cashed the ace of trumps and led a second one. When East threw a diamond, declarer had to concede two trump tricks to West, finishing down one.
The other declarer was both more experienced and a student of the odds. After winning the first trick with the ace of diamonds, he crossed to hand with a spade to the ace and led the jack of trumps, running it when West followed with a low card.
After playing a low trump to dummy’s ace, declarer came back to hand with the ace of clubs and cashed the king of trumps, claiming twelve tricks after conceding a trump to West’s queen. What are the odds, given the diamonds are breaking 7-2 and there is no defensive ruff?
The first declarer succeeds when trumps are 3-2 (about 58%) and also when East has a singleton ten or queen, about a 70% chance. The second declarer makes his contract when trumps are 3-2 or when West has four trumps including the queen, about an 83% chance.
Q J 2
A 3
A 8 4
K J 9 6 2
