Source: IBPA Column Service Jun 2018
Dealer North. Both Vul
 Q J 2 A 3 A 8 4 K J 9 6 2 |
||
| 10 9 7 5Q 10 6 59 27 4 3 |
8 6 44K Q J 10 7 6 38 5 |
|
| A K 3K J 9 8 7 25A Q 10 |
| West | North | East | South |
| 1NT | 3 |
3 |
|
| Pass | 3NT | Pass | 6 |
| Pass | Pass | Pass |
Both South players in a team game reached a fair six hearts. Both received the lead of the nine of diamonds, suggesting that the diamonds were at least 7-2 since, with three diamonds, West would have led his lowest card. The first declarer was a good, if somewhat unimaginative, player.
After winning the first trick with the ace of diamonds, he cashed the ace of trumps and led a second one. When East threw a diamond, declarer had to concede two trump tricks to West, finishing down one.
The other declarer was both more experienced and a student of the odds. After winning the first trick with the ace of diamonds, he crossed to hand with a spade to the ace and led the jack of trumps, running it when West followed with a low card.
After playing a low trump to dummy’s ace, declarer came back to hand with the ace of clubs and cashed the king of trumps, claiming twelve tricks after conceding a trump to West’s queen. What are the odds, given the diamonds are breaking 7-2 and there is no defensive ruff?
The first declarer succeeds when trumps are 3-2 (about 58%) and also when East has a singleton ten or queen, about a 70% chance. The second declarer makes his contract when trumps are 3-2 or when West has four trumps including the queen, about an 83% chance.
