Source: Example: 826 IBPA Column Service. Dealer South E/O Vul
9 6 4 2 K 9 A 7 6 4 K 9 4
Q 10 7 3 J 8 Q 10 8 3 A 10 3 J 8 Q 7 6 3 J 9 J 8 6 5 2
A K 5 A 10 5 4 2 K 5 2 Q 7
West North East South
Pass 2 Pass 2
Pass 3NT Pass Pass
As the auction suggested that North had four spades, West led a fourth-highest three of diamonds to East’s jack. Declarer counted six top winners and saw that he could develop a club trick, bringing the total to seven tricks. He realised that the main chance of developing the two extra game-going tricks in time was to play hearts for four tricks. If the hearts were 3-3 then any sensible play would have brought in a total of four tricks. However, declarer saw that if he played the king of hearts followed by the nine he would be wasting the nine whenever West had a doubleton honour or four hearts to the queen-jack. (If East had a doubleton honour-low, then no play would have gained the extra tricks in hearts). So, as he did not want a club shift, declarer took the first trick with his king of diamonds and led a low heart to the eight, nine and queen. East exited with the nine of diamonds. After West overtook this with the ten, declarer won the trick with dummy’s ace and cashed the king of hearts. When West followed with the jack of hearts the contract was safe. Declarer continued by leading a club to his queen and West’s ace. While West could cash two diamond winners, declarer had nine tricks: two spades, four hearts, two diamonds and one club. Distribution percentages when 6 cards missing with 2 honors (15 differents ways) One of the missing honors is the J or the Q, it will be second in one hand 9 times out of 15 ( 4 times J, 4 times Q and 1 both honors), play for the fall of a second honor, awards a 59.99% chance of success (6.66 X 9 = 59.99). Based on reasoning it is clear that the option to seek a H x outpaces the option to find the suit 3/3 by 20% chance.